Dunning-Kruger Effect - "I Know That I Know Nothing"

2024 Author: Harry Day | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 15:43

This effect was first described in 1999 by social psychologists David Dunning (University of Michigan) and Justin Kruger (New York University). The effect "suggests that we are not very good at assessing ourselves accurately." The video lecture below, written by Dunning, is a sobering reminder of a person's tendency to self-deception.

“We often overestimate our abilities, with the result that widespread 'illusory superiority' makes 'incompetent people think they are amazing.

The effect is greatly enhanced at the lower end of the scale; "Those with the least ability tend to overestimate their skills the most." Or, as they say, some people are so stupid that they have no idea of their stupidity.

Combine this with the opposite effect - the tendency of qualified people to underestimate themselves - and we have the prerequisites for the epidemiological spread of mismatch in the skill set and the positions held. But if Impostor Syndrome can lead to tragic personal outcomes and rob the world of talent, then the worst impact of the Dunning-Kruger Effect negatively affects us all.

While pompous conceit plays a role in fostering misconceptions about competence, Dunning and Kruger found that most of us are prone to this effect in some area of our lives simply because we do not have the skills to understand how we are bad at some things. We don't know the rules well enough to break them with success and creativity. Until we have a basic understanding of what constitutes competence in a particular case, we cannot even understand that we are failing.

Highly motivated, low-skilled people are the main problem in any industry. No wonder Albert Einstein said: "A real crisis is a crisis of incompetence." But why do people not realize their incompetence and where does the confidence in their own expertise come from?

“Are you as good at some things as you think? How proficient are you at managing your finances? What about reading other people's emotions? How healthy are you compared to your friends? Is your grammar above average?

Understanding how competent and professional we are compared to other people not only boosts self-esteem. It helps us understand when to move forward, relying on our own decisions and instincts, and when to seek advice on the side.

However, psychological research shows that we are not that good at assessing ourselves accurately. In fact, we often overestimate our own abilities. Researchers have a special name for this phenomenon: the Dunning-Kruger effect. It is he who explains why over 100 studies have shown that people exhibit illusory superiority.

We consider ourselves better than others to the point that we break the laws of mathematics. When software engineers at two companies were asked to rate their performance, 32% at one company and 42% at the other ranked themselves in the top 5%.

According to another study, 88% of American drivers consider their driving skills to be above average. And these are not isolated conclusions. On average, people tend to rate themselves better than most in areas ranging from health, leadership skills, ethics, and more.

Of particular interest is that those with the least ability tend to overestimate their skills the most. People with noticeable gaps in logical reasoning, grammar, financial literacy, math, emotional intelligence, medical laboratory testing, and chess all tend to rate their competence almost at the level of real experts.

So, if the Dunning-Kruger effect is invisible to those who experience it, what can we do to understand how good we really are at different things? First, ask other people and think about what they have to say, even if it’s unpleasant. Second, and more importantly, keep learning. The more knowledgeable we become, the less likely there will be holes in our competence. Perhaps it all boils down to the old adage, "When you argue with a fool, first make sure he doesn't do the same."