2024 Author: Harry Day | [email protected]. Last modified: 2023-12-17 15:43
Let's imagine that you have $ 5000 free and you need to invest it somewhere. If you need more, I'm not greedy - imagine boldly.
Have you presented? Good.
Now let me offer you three advisors.
Here they are:
Astrologer.
Financial analyst with 5 years of experience.
A 4-year-old girl.
Who would you trust to manage your money?
From experience I know most will trust the analyst. And at first glance, this seems to be correct.
Meanwhile, such an experiment was actually carried out by a professor of psychology in the UK.
And here's what came of it:
- the astrologer made his choice based on the date of the founding of the companies;
- a financial analyst has studied the activities of companies over the past 7 years and invested money based on this analysis;
- 4 year old girl chose 4 random companies from the list.
And already at the very beginning, the results were more than interesting.
During the first week, the astrologer lost 10% of the amount, the analyst - 7%, and the 4-year-old girl - 4%.
But that is not all. The experiment was designed for a year.
A year later, the results were even more exciting.
Due to fluctuations in the market, the astrologer lost 6% at the end of the year, the financial analyst - 46% !!, and a 4-year-old girl, instead of losses, received a PROFIT of 5.6%.
Impressive, isn't it?
What am I doing? What to do now, someone may ask, stop trusting experts? To act at random?
Not really. Experts are still needed.
If an expert knows a rigid causal relationship (and he is an expert and still knows), then he will tell you it and everything will be as he said.
But if the connection between events is not rigid, but probabilistic, then the expert's opinion is only the expert's opinion and nothing more. In such a situation, as it turns out, there is almost no difference with whom to consult.
An expert's knowledge is often even a hindrance, as it is based on his personal past. And the future has become too often different from past experiences.
And now a well-founded question arises: "And what to do?".
Let me tell you another story as an answer.
Psychologists, apparently, understood where this was going, because they are, as it were, experts too. Therefore, much earlier than the experiment with money, another experiment was carried out.
There, several hundred people were asked a very specific question, the answer to which almost no one knows. As befits ignorant people - they all answered differently. Mostly wrong. But when we collected all the answers together and deduced something in between in meaning and meaning, we got the right answer!
It so happened that each individually was wrong in different ways, but all together were right
And now what does that mean to us?
In order to get a noteworthy answer and make a good decision, we need as many opinions as possible. Moreover, the opinions are different, I would even say, polar. And then just stick to something in between.
Everything seems simple.
But people are very different and their answers are highly dependent on the current state of mood and many other variables. If we decide to collect several opinions, for a fateful decision, we better make sure that we are able to carefully observe and understand who is in front of us, i.e. - to be able to see the characteristics and values of the person with whom we are talking, to be able to draw up his profile, etc. Otherwise, we will simply be told the wrong thing, or not all, or we will collect the same opinions. And then we will make a decision based on this not very reliable information.
But what often happens in companies? The employees (all together) have the necessary information to bypass competitors, to get out of the crisis, etc. But managers don't use it. Simply because they did not think to ask, or because they "know better" or do not know how to ask and who exactly.
It turns out to be a funny situation. The necessary information is there, but it is all the same that it is not.
There is visible control - there is no real control.
Therefore, many leaders are increasingly realizing that they have a valuable resource - "collective intelligence" and the ability to "see" each person individually.
You just need to be able to observe and ask the right questions
Well, there are always those experts who know how to do this for a manager.
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